ARE WE RUNNING OUT OF WATER?

By Sofia Oural Martinez

It is a known fact that saving water is important. We therefore know water is scarce. But exactly how scarce? Do we have enough water for ourselves? Do we have enough water for the future? With increasing population, conflicts, and pollution, some theorize that water can become a luxury, even for the richer parts of the world.

Even when setting aside other pressing issues such as increased temperatures, soil degradation, plant diseases, and lack of genetic diversity, the lack of water alone could prevent the world’s people from being fed. Estimates predicted that for crop production to match demand, human appropriation of freshwater resources for irrigation would have to increase by 146%, with most countries doubling their requirement.  The issue? Many countries are already utilizing their water resources to their maximum capacity, leaving little room for expansion.

But let’s take a step back. How did we get here? Due to a multitude of factors, mainly reduced rainfall, declining river flow (as mountain snow and ice retreats) and increasing rates of transpiration and evaporation from plants (as temperatures increase), the dry parts of the world are becoming drier. In some places, such as the southwest of the United States —now in its 24th consecutive dry year— is considered to have permanently switched to a drier state. 

Rivers struggle to reach the sea. Lakes are shrinking. Species living in freshwater are becoming extinct twice as fast as species that live on land. And major cities are threatened by extreme water stress. 

This is the case of Mexico City, where the reservoirs that supply the Cutzamala water system, which provides about 20% of the water used by the greater Mexico City area’s 22 million residents, are drying up. Due to uncommonly low rainfall, they have fallen to historic lows of 38% capacity, compared to the usual 70% capacity they have at this time of year. The concept of “water wars” may be a foreign thought to many, but the situation is so dire that in some parts of the city armed guards accompany the water tanks to make sure they are not stolen. Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador has dismissed worries and said the issue is being addressed by officials who are drilling new wells and repairing pre-existing equipment. This, however, has so far failed to calm the citizens’ outrage and the root of the problem. 

What is the solution? It may seem logical at first glance: enhancing the efficiency of irrigation. If 90% of our freshwater is used for agriculture, there must be situations in which it is not handled efficiently or where technological advancements can reduce unnecessary waste. Therefore, more water would be available for personal use as well as industries, providing a theoretical well-rounded solution. However, enter the irrigation efficiency paradox. Better techniques ensure that less water is required to water crops, effectively making irrigation cheaper. Less costs, but same revenue? More profit. Farmers are encouraged to expand across a wider area and increase their output. This is exactly what happened in the Guadiana River basin in Spain, where a €600m investment to reduce water consumption by increasing the efficiency of irrigation has instead increased it. 

The paradox can be overcome, however, through regulation, with measures that limit overall as well as individual water consumption. But denying access to a critical life source is (understandably) not generally in line with most governments worldwide, who instead rely on technological developments having an overall positive effect on society. Some governments plan massive piping schemes to bring water from one place to another. But climate change and increased demand may mean the water sources also run dry. The alternative, desalinating sea and ocean water, usually costs 5 times as much as retrieving rain or ground water, and the process requires much more energy and produces great volumes of toxic brine. 

A diet change can be part of the solution. Those who can choose what to consume (the richer half of the world) can strive to minimize their water footprint. Removing as much meat consumption as possible can lead to a decline in total crop demand —as not as many animals must be fed— and therefore, water use. However, government policies and initiatives often fail to prioritize sustainable food production and consumption. A key example of this is the European Commission, which deleted from its new climate plan the call to incentivize diversified protein sources. In simpler terms, there will be no encouragement to seek protein from plant-based foods, as the focus remains on animals.

The truth is there is a very real possibility that we run out of water. And if it is not us, then definitely the less privileged parts of the globe. Water scarcity is an issue that is often neglected in politics because of its lack of “relevance”. We live in a world where there are so many events deserving our attention at once that governments fail time and time again to provide comprehensive solutions to all of them. While regulatory measures and technological advancements offer hope for the future, they must come alongside a recognition of the interconnection of water, food, and environmental sustainability. Somehow, we must recover focus. 

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